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Models

NOAA OAP is supporting development of forecast models to project OA conditions. One example is J-SCOPE, a model that projects 3 to 6 months forward and is being developed with state and tribal fisheries managers. In January J-SCOPE forecasted 2016 would be a warm year, though not as extreme as 2015. Chlorophyll is forecasted to be low in the north and higher than average chlorophyll in some parts of southern Oregon, and in regions associated with the Juan de Fuca Eddy. Overall J-SCOPE forecasts higher oxygen concentrations (less hypoxia, occurring later) than in average years. Ocean conditions are forecasted to be suitable for sardine, though depressed stock abundance may mean that fewer sardine migrate to Pacific Northwest and British Columbia waters in the summer. The CFS forecasting tool that drives J-SCOPE forecasts a continuation of El NiƱo conditions in January - February 2016, with ENSO-neutral possible near the end of the summer, and PDO. These predictions are currently being evaluated on the OA survey cruise.